polymarket-btc-5m-agent
Polymarket BTC 5-minute up/down agent: code prices with a volatility model, Jev scores regime and vetoes anomalies; paper by default.
Overview
Jev BTC 5m Engine is a trading agent for Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin up-or-down markets, documented in Portuguese. Code does the pricing: it reads the window's market and Chainlink price-to-beat, follows the live Chainlink BTC/USD feed, and computes P(Up) from a normal model with realised per-second volatility. Only when a maker candidate has enough net edge does it call Jev with an odds-free state, asking a Score for market regime (adjusting volatility), a Noul for an anomalous window (veto) and a Noul for direction under the exact resolution rule (veto if it disagrees with the model). Gate and regime roles can be switched off independently.
Orders are post-only maker orders one tick above the bid with short TTL, one position per window persisted in SQLite, skipping the first 30 and last 25 seconds, with a daily stop and kill switch. It never trades live by default and checks geoblocks, warning that live mode loses real money and that compliance is the user's responsibility. Telegram alerts, paired shadow comparisons and calibration reports support evaluation.
What the decision model decides
| Type | Question | Answers |
|---|---|---|
| Score | What volatility regime is the market in? | — |
| Yes / no | Is this window anomalous? | yes · no |
| Yes / no | Under the resolution rule, will BTC finish up? | yes · no |
How it works
- Price P(Up) in code from the live feed.
- If edge exists, ask Jev regime, anomaly and direction.
- Veto on anomaly or disagreement; adjust volatility by regime.
- Place a maker order; settle and log PnL.
Strengths
- Code owns pricing; Jev only adjusts or vetoes.
- Paper mode and shadow profiles by default.
- Calibration and paired comparisons.
Caveats
- Live mode risks real money; jurisdiction restrictions apply.
- Not an audited strategy.
Getting started
Run in EXECUTION_MODE=paper with SHADOW_PROFILES first, as the README advises.At a glance
- Type
- Project
- Status
- prototype
- Language
- Python
- Runtime
- trading daemon
- Has code
- yes
Use cases and integrations
How curated lists describe it
Agente de trading para o mercado BTC Up/Down de 5 minutos da Polymarket: modelo em código, Jev (TypeSafe System One) como portão, ordens maker, calibração e shadows em paper.
hellogumbo/awesome-jev
Frequently asked questions
Does Jev set the price?
No, code prices; Jev adjusts regime and can veto.
Does it trade live by default?
No, it never trades live unless configured.
Are there legal restrictions?
Polymarket restricts positions in several jurisdictions; the engine checks but compliance is the user's responsibility.
Related projects
Local China A-share technical analysis workbench where Jev assesses eight indicator dimensions and returns Buy, Hold or Sell with evidence.
ProjectbetaPython, TypeScriptStock terminal that gathers live evidence via Valyu and asks Jev for the probability a stock trades higher in 30 days.
ProjectprototypeTypeScriptExperimental Polymarket bot: a web-search model writes an evidence brief, Jev prices P(YES), and code trades only on a configured edge.
ProjectprototypePythonTerminal agent for Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets that asks Jev up or down and buys once only above 0.90 confidence; dry-run default.
ProjectprototypeTypeScriptPaper-only research tool for Polymarket BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets: Jev scores the direction, separate code decides entries.
ProjectresearchTypeScriptExperiment that builds past-only Hong Kong market state and asks Jev for an up, flat or down forecast, with a standalone HTML report.
ProjectresearchPython