expected-value

Calculates probability-weighted averages of all possible outcomes to enable rational decisions under uncertainty. Covers scenario identification, probability estimation, payoff quantification, and risk-adjusted interpretation. Use when comparing risky options (investments, product bets, strategic choices), prioritizing projects by expected return, assessing whether to take a gamble, or when user mentions expected value, EV calculation, risk-adjusted return, probability-weighted outcomes, or decision tree.